Climate Change Didn’t Cause Supertyphoon Haiyan. But the Storm Is Still a Reason to Fight Warming

While scientists can't yet find a clear signal between global warming and killer tropical storms like Haiyan, the supertyphoon could well be a sign of what's to come in a warmer world

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A satellite image shows Supertyphoon Haiyan over the Philippines

Some 6,000 miles away from the Philippines, where 10,000 people or more may have been killed by Supertyphoon Haiyan, the Filipino diplomat Yeb Sano rose today in Warsaw to address the international delegates at the opening session of the annual U.N. summit on climate change. In an emotional speech, Sano connected the devastation from Haiyan — quite possibly the strongest storm ever recorded upon landfall — and the intensifying threat of climate change:

Typhoons such as Yolanda (Haiyan) and its impacts represent a sobering reminder to the international community that we cannot afford to procrastinate on climate action. Warsaw must deliver on enhancing ambition and should muster the political will to address climate change.

In Doha, we asked, “If not us then who? If not now, then when? If not here, then where?” (borrowed from Philippine student leader Ditto Sarmiento during Martial Law). It may have fell on deaf ears. But here in Warsaw, we may very well ask these same forthright questions. “If not us, then who? If not now, then when? If not here in Warsaw, where?”

What my country is going through as a result of this extreme climate event is madness. The climate crisis is madness.

Sano was hardly the only one to connect the unimaginable power of Haiyan with global warming. U.N. Framework Convention on Climate Change head Christiana Figueres, who will help oversee the Warsaw talks, said the typhoon was part of the “sobering reality” of global warming. The sheer power of Haiyan, as well as the still uncounted human devastation it has wrought, all but assures that the supertyphoon will become a symbol of climate change for years to come, just as Hurricane Katrina and Superstorm Sandy have.

But how much of a role did current climate change actually play in the making of Haiyan? That’s less clear.

(MORE: As Tropical Storm Karen Dissipates, the Debate Grows Over a Quiet Hurricane Season)

The warming of air and sea temperatures — which is well under way — should on the whole give more power to tropical cyclones, in part because warmer air can hold more water vapor. But the reality is that the science around increasing greenhouse-gas emissions and tropical cyclones has become muddier in recent years. (Hurricanes, cyclones and typhoons are all tropical cyclones — the name just refers to where in the world they form, with tropical cyclones in the Pacific being called typhoons.) The most recent report from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), released in September, found that there was “low confidence in attribution of changes in tropical cyclone activity to human influence” so far. The report also had “low confidence” that there would be increases in intense tropical-cyclone activity over the next few decades, and found that it was “more likely than not” that such a signal would be seen by the end of the 21st century.

In IPCC speak, “more likely than not” means a 50% or higher probability, and it’s a step back from the IPCC’s 2007 climate-change assessment, when the scientific group found that it was “likely” that future tropical cyclones would become more intense with global warming. (Likely in IPCC speak means a probability of 66% or above, and no, I don’t know why it requires a glossary to decode IPCC-speak.) That change, along with the robust scientific debate around the connection between climate change and tropical-cyclone strength and frequency, has to do with conflicting studies as well as poor historical data around tropical cyclones — especially in the less studied Pacific — which makes it hard to judge whether storms really have been getting worse as the planet has warmed. Even in places where the IPCC is much more certain that tropical cyclones have been getting more stronger and more frequent in recent decades, like the North Atlantic, scientists disagree on exactly why that’s happening.

Still, if existing climate change played a role in supercharging Haiyan, it’s likely tiny, as NASA climatologist Bill Patzert told the Pasadena Star-News:

The fingerprint is very small, if at all. If the winds are 200 mph, global warming might have contributed 5 mph to that 200 mph.

(MORE: Climate Change Could Make Hurricanes Stronger — and More Frequent)

The reality is that it remains extremely difficult to attribute specific weather events to climate change, and such attribution studies take time. It seems likely Haiyan would have been nearly as destructive whether or not the planet had warmed over the past century. It’s true that sea-level rise will have added to the massive storm surges that seem to have been the real killers in Haiyan. Seas have been rising significantly faster in the Philippine Sea, where Haiyan struck, than the world on average. The higher seas would have worsened flooding, just as sea-level rise amplified the damage from Superstorm Sandy, but given the fact that Haiyan’s storm surges were as much as 20 ft., climate-driven sea-level rise wouldn’t have been the deciding factor in the supertyphoon’s devastation.

But if it’s virtually impossible to blame Haiyan on current climate change, that doesn’t mean that future climate change — including the warming we’ve already baked into the system — won’t make future Haiyans more likely. Climate scientists are the opposites of weathermen — the further out they’re asked to forecast, the more confidence they tend to have in their predictions. Models point to stronger, if not necessarily more frequent tropical cyclones as the globe continues to warm, though that signal may not become clear until later in the 21st century.

And of course there’s debate over that as well — see this July paper by the Massachusetts Institute of Technology climatologist Kerry Emanuel, which predicted that the frequency and the intensity of tropical cyclones would increase in the 21st century, and that the increases would be most prominent in the western North Pacific, which is where Haiyan struck. The back-and-forth over today’s storms shouldn’t obscure the fact that climate change will bring an assortment of dangers, possibly including more powerful storms — which is one more reason why we need to reduce greenhouse-gas emissions while building a world that is more resilient to extreme weather. That’s especially true for poor, geographically exposed countries like the Philippines, which is already one of the most vulnerable nations in the world to climate change.

Delegates at over 190 countries will be meeting in Warsaw over the next two weeks to do just that, although expectations for the international climate talks are even dimmer than usual. (As the veteran climate-talks expert Alden Meyer of the Union of Concerned Scientists put it: “Never have the stakes been higher with expectations so low.”) In the meantime, what the Philippines needs now, more than action at Warsaw, is help on the ground — and in the future, foreign aid that can help build resistance to extreme weather, which can make the difference between a weather disaster and a human catastrophe.

MORE: A Silent Hurricane Season Adds Fuel to a Debate Over Global Warming


Oh Well give you all more time to watch more intensity and frequency and you will turn about on your heels..  All who say "no" climate change is nothing to do with global weird weather systems and storm activity? Oh well you have MUCH to LEARN. 


For THOUSANDS of years, he Native American Indians lived in harmony WITH nature...then in the 1600's,  the white man came to America from Europe &  he has been messing things up ever since...

I mean, it pretty bad when entire towns here in America have to be relocated or abandoned by its residents because corporate America has polluted their town beyond repair.   


I think that with the human race polluting this planet the way we  do, it should be obvious that climate change is either directly or indirectly, related to what the human race is doing. 

We are polluting this planet, the ONLY  home we have, faster than nature can clean it up...we humans are far to greedy and/or far too lazy, to clean up after ourselves.

I also think that this is not even the beginning of what is yet to come....The Super Hurricane that blasted the Philippines is nothing compared to how big & bad the future hurricanes will get.

I suspect that super storms like Haiyan, will grow to the point of being the same size, or bigger, than all of Europe, and/or all of North America.

I think when the doo-doo really hits the fan, it will be like the scenario in the movie "THE DAY AFTER TOMORROW", where none of the world's leaders wanted to listen to how the climate was changing for the worst UNTIL it was too late to do anything to stop it...

And from what I have seen, and read, the world leaders are doing the EXACT same thing as  they did in the movie.

I can only hope that my grandchildren are long dead & buried before the climate gets anywhere near as bad as in the movie.


The connexion between global warming and the increasing power and frequency of tropical storms, which are fuelled by heat, is so obvious and scientifically attested that anyone who 'can't find a clear signal' is clearly looking the other way, and may safely be ignored. 


Well, the explanation was very clear that CLIMATE CHANGE played a role in supercharging Haiyan. Another explanation above is logic that our planet had warmed over the past century. Also, the seas have been rising significantly and in the Philippines Seas the sea level have been rising faster than the world average.


Saying that climate change did not cause super typhoon Haiyan is like saying climate did not cause the weather. Just as you can't definitively attribute which part of the typhoon is due to climate change, you cannot definitively say the two are unrelated. They are so intricately entwined, that science will take decades to figure out the puzzle. But did climate change (and therefore, humans) help shape super typhoon Haiyan? Yes, absolutely without a doubt.


Ok; I know that this will not be popular ; BUT is it possible that HARP is still in operation ? Don't know what HARP is ,  check it out on your search engines.

This wouldn't be the first time that HARP was connected to a sever weather condition in that part of the world. IN this day and age ... anything is possible.


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Hello, The Fundraising Foundation Saves The Worlds Philippine representatives lives in the areas who have suffered the worst by Haiyan, our female representative Ivona M. Carcedo lives in Cebu region, and her fiance Brent L. Mausisa who lived in what once was Tacloban City.

Ivona has provided her personal story on the events from her point of view, you can read it on Saves The Worlds blog here:

We hope that this will give you all a deeper understanding of the actual events and situation there when you read this personal story!

Please share it with others!

Much thanks from the board of directors in Saves The World Foundation!


The title of the article is deceptive.  Who said climate change had nothing to do with this Superstorm?  

I'd love to know what went on in the editorial decision to put such a lame title on this article.  Was is a phone call from an influential backer, was it simply hand-wringing fear that they might offend deniers?  Was it a wishful thinking? 

 Time has had a conservative bias for as long as I have read it. Now, it is fatal.


Yammer yammer. we can stop this right here right now?

How much is it going to cost for this to stop?  Philippines Oh 10 Billion a year and we think it will go away RIGHT, now for the rest of you third world countries how much?

These storms are not new that 50 years ago the populationwas approx 30 million and is now 150 million would not have any effect right. An ant farts and some camera crew is there and it is atributed to globa warming. Ever heard of Lanina


Superstorm Haiyan formed over warmer ocean waters. These waters contain more moisture than decades ago.

Why?   For years, CO2 has been trapping solar radiation, adding about 1-2 watt/square meter to the balance.  This is the equivalent of 4 Hiroshima atomic bombs/second extra energy to our planet- for years.

The article gives support to the contribution of AGW to this Superstorm, whereas the title of the article does not, 

If it walks like a duck, quacks like a duck, it probably is a duck


" the future, foreign aid that can help build resistance to extreme weather, which can make the difference between a weather disaster and a human catastrophe."

Can anyone really be resistant to nature? Pipe dreams. As much as the Philippines need help now, it is also imperative you do your jobs there in Warsaw.

Science is not the only way to prove if it is real or not, because there is this part in science where if you do not have the proper methodology nor mechanisms to measure an instance when you would always have an inconclusive result. So why rely on science, when we can always use reasoning first?

We can always go back in the measured timeline when the changes started occurring and revert from that point. Even if we do not how it happens, we know it happens, and even if we don't actually know the causes we have eliminated it.

And think from that reversal, we can actually objectively observe what the probable causes are. This is just with reasoning, and science can come after.

Science is not the be all and end all.


@JeromeQuejano   man made???  you might as well claim that it was Thor and his hammer which caused haiyan....


The attacks on my post reflect outright lies, half-truths, distortions and apparently fear that a prototype engine will demonstrate it is possible to circumvent The Second Law of Thermodynamics.

When the prototype has been validated by independent labs it may cause a perpetual commotion.


Your title is misleading, in fact you support that there is no clear evidence that Global Warming directly caused it, not that it might have been at least partly responsible for it's timing and intensity.

The simple fact of the matter is that Global warming isn't about things just warming up a bit.

Our weather is driven by Coriolis force and heat, basically weather is a heat engine.

As the planet heats up one of the very widely agreed on consequences is that there will be more severe weather and it will be more severe.

In the US the number of storms hitting the center and east coast has been unprecedented previously.

Were these caused by global warming, possibly not, but likely they were made worse by global warming.

The planet is getting warmer, the ice is melting and the weather is changing - global warming is real and your title that indicates this typhoon was unrelated is irresponsible and as unjustified as saying it was totally the consequence of global warming.


The Earth has a cycle..the sun has a cycle..EVERY planet has a cycle. The earth is in a normal cycle. This global warming stuff is just a way to scare the masses so the government can control everyone much easier!


"have been getting more stronger and more frequent"

editing has been getting more weaker, making things more harder to read


YOU can't believe it WILL be a crisis until science stops agreeing it only COULD be a crisis.


There is only one single reason for those to rebuke climate change, MONEY. Pure and simple, MONEY. The conservatives base every single agenda, every single vote and every single opinion on the flow of money and greed. If any given subject or FACT obstructs the flow of money they are going to ATTACK that subject. If the color is white and the color white is going to affect the bottom line the conservatives will tell you it is black, they swear to the world who sees the color white that it is actually black. Do you want to hear the most astonishing thing about this scenario....about 405 of Americans will believe them, is that just the craziest crap you have ever heard. These are the same people that go around saying how much they love the military and then cut billions of dollars from veterans so that they don't have to raise corporate taxes...Are you hearing this, they are going to further perpetuate our veterans suffering to protect those who have it better than anyone else on the planet. The men and women who gave their lives, their limbs and their mental stability for our safety and Freedom and yet they still refuse to even raise taxes on the rich to save our veteran benefits....and tomorrow they are going to point the finger at the Liberals and Independents telling people that we are not Patriotic and 40 % of Americans will fall for it...We are the real Patriots, we really care about our troops, we really care if they eat, if they die, if they have to go to war for an immoral reason...we are the compassionate, we are the Democrats and Independents and it's high time we are giving our due and the conservatives get their kick in the pants.


A surprising alternative is being born. It can illuminate a way to transform the energy arena!

“The thermal energy content of the atmosphere, ocean, and upper crust is estimated to be more than 10,000 times that of the world's fossil fuel reserves, making it a potentially inexhaustible reservoir of green energy.” Daniel P. Sheehan University of San Diego 
AESOP Institute is prototyping THE LITTLE ENGINE THAT COOLS. This engine will run on the thermal energy content of the atmosphere, a form of solar energy.  
See to learn more about this hard to believe NO FUEL ENGINE. 
It will exhaust cold air. Think of it as a refrigerator that generates electricity. 
A 24/7 inexpensive power producing alternative to radioactive and fossil fuels. 
The possibility of such an engine is denied by a few scientists who seem to fear experimentation that would prove engines running on atmospheric heat are possible.

Once validated by independent labs, the prototype will provide an exciting path to new science that could slow, and perhaps open a path to reverse, Global Warming. 


How many news editors and climate blame believers does it take to change a light bulb?

None because the news editors prefer to keep their readers in the dark about science's "maybe a crisis" consensus of nothing. 

*Science has NEVER said or agreed it WILL be crisis and nothing beyond just "could be"  a crisis for 30 years so YOU can't say it either. 

30 years of a maybe crisis isn't good enough for us deniers to condemn our children but good enough for you believers so can we agree to disagree then?


Climate Change Didn’t Cause Supertyphoon Haiyan. But the SOMETHING MAN-MADE. I know many tells me this is a conspiracy theory and experts won't even try to look at it. Why? Maybe because they might be proven wrong. On his page and website, Michael Janitch posted information about weather modification and warfare which they call a hoax, again... why? because they don't believe it. But I think every theory should have been tested by them but why test if it is already happening?

This morning he replied with a response video on his "debunked" video about man-made typhoons

Here is the link

Building up to my response ...  this is a must see, no nonsense reply from tatoott setting the record straight for the 'expert', who butchered the info when they dissected (and smeared) my video on Philippines national news this a.m.

My question is, why are these expert ignorant of changes? They see themselves the highest in the position to call a conclusion even to the things they don't know. The mass media is hard to please to with this random info. but what if it is true? Don't they care about stopping or preventing these kinds of typhoons so that life will be spared? I hope TIME will recognize his efforts too. Thank you. Godbless


"In the meantime, what the Philippines needs now, more than action at Warsaw, is help on the ground—and in the future, foreign aid that can help build resistance to extreme weather, which can make the difference between a weather disaster and a human catastrophe."

Good luck! If our inertia with regard to changing our behaviour to stop climate change is any indication, we humans are extremely reaction-prone. We could certainly have predicted the outcome of this particular storm too, if we had cared. We could not only have helped build defences against the storm, we could have had medicines and food and blankets there on the ground before the storm hit, instead of waiting until news of 10,000 deaths to decide to send supplies and aid. Despite our belief to the contrary, humans are extremely lousy planners!




I read  an article where an entire island full of local Natives, had to leave their island, because the ocean water was taking over the island...the island was in the South Pacific if my memory serves me correctly....

If this keeps up, we will all be living in houseboats or aboard ships of some kind.


Err John, during La Nina ocean surface temperatures are cooler than average, and cooler temperatures means weaker storms.


@JohnWhitehurst I wish we could.  The most expensive alternatives currently cost about 1.5 times what fossil fuel energy costs.  The FF industry represents about 7% of the US GDP.  It is very likely that as economies of scale come into play the cost of alternatives will become less; so, we are looking at a maximum cost of 3% of GDP to switch to alternatives.  The results vary, but in general we are looking at about 20% reduction in agricultural yields per degree of warming, and BAU will easily take us to 4 degrees of warming by 2100.  So, by 2100 we can have a 3% loss of GDP or an 80% loss in food supply.  Take your pick.


@IvanLlaneta  Very true. Maybe just going back to basic principles is good enough. When my Mom told me to keep my room clean, I didn't ask her for scientific proof. I realised that keeping it clean was good and right. If we related to the environment in the same way, we would obviously not want industrial and other pollutants in the water, ground  and air... so the most sensible thing is to take action, and let scientists carry on with their arguments for the next hundred years...  



You are a vile evil person, clearly acting as a carnival barker to a not very well informed public to extract money from them with with stories you know to be utterly without merit.

In this universe, physics is what it is and you already knew the fatal flaw of each of your claims before you made them.

Your intent from the start is to deceive and profit, you are nothing but a thief.

And you discredit honest scientists everywhere by your ongoing charlatanism.

You know too much to be doing this through ignorance, you are a modern Snake Oil salesman.

Go Away!


@ForTheMusic2 Yes, the earth has natural cycles. We are currently in the cooling phase of that cycle and should still be for the next 10-20 thousand years.  Why do you think the planet is getting warmer?


@ForTheMusic2You mutt! ...... AND the CARBON cycle, which us humans are eating, altering and affecting! Ask 99% of the Professors of Science or Geography.  Not the ones receiving payouts from Oil companies. Stop listening to music and get an education


@ForTheMusic2 Everything has a cycle, and death is part of every cycle. Thank you for pointing out cycles.


Mark Goldes, starting in the mid-seventies, engaged for several years in the pretense that his company SunWind Ltd was developing a nearly production-ready, road-worthy, wind-powered "windmobile," based on the windmobile invented by James Amick; and that therefore SunWind would be a wonderful investment opportunity.

After SunWind "dried up" in 1983, Goldes embarked on the long-running pretense that his company Room Temperature Superconductors Inc was developing room-temperature superconductors; and that therefore Room Temperature Superconductors Inc would be a wonderful investment opportunity. He continues the pretense that the company developed something useful, even to this day.

And then Goldes embarked on the pretense that his company Magnetic Power Inc was developing "NO FUEL ENGINES" based on "Virtual Photon Flux;" and then, on the pretense that MPI was developing horn-powered "NO FUEL ENGINES" based on the resonance of magnetized tuning-rods; and then, on the pretense that his company Chava Energy was developing water-fueled engines based on "collapsing hydrogen orbitals" (which are ruled out by quantum physics); and then, on the pretense that he was developing ambient-heat-powered "NO FUEL ENGINES" (which are ruled out by the Second Law of Thermodynamics).

Goldes' forty-year career of "revolutionary invention" pretense has nothing to do with science, but only with pseudoscience and pseudophysics - his lifelong stock-in-trade.
I have spent months investigating the career of Mark Goldes, Aesop Institute's Perpetual Scam Machine.

1976: Goldes seeks investors with fraudulent claims to have developed a nearly production-ready, road-worthy, wind-propelled, wind-rechargeable "windmobile" that could reach 60 mph. Goldes has never developed any roadworthy windmobile.

1998: Goldes fools the gullible US Air Force with his "room temperature superconductor" scam, receiving over four hundred thousand dollars in "Innovative Research" grants. Goldes has never produced any superconductor.

2005: Goldes seeks investors with fraudulent claims that his company, MPI, is developing "Magnetic Power Modules" based on "Virtual Photon Flux."

2008: Goldes seeks investors with fraudulent claims that "MPI is also developing breakthrough magnetic energy technologies including POWERGENIE (Power Generation of Electricity by Nondestructive Interference of Energy)." The basic idea of POWERGENIE is to generate electricity from sound energy, by blowing a horn at a magnetized tuning rod. Goldes claims to have "run an electric car for more than 4,800 miles with no need to plug-in." According to Goldes, "[MPI] Revenues from licenses and Joint Ventures are conservatively projected to exceed $1 billion annually by 2012."

2009: Goldes seeks investors with fraudulent claims that his latest scamporation, Chava Energy, "has been developing enhanced theoretical and practical paths that lead towards commercialization of energy conversion systems that utilize hydrinos." He now claims to be "developing a Self Powered Internal Combustion Engine – SPICE(tm) powered by hydrinos." ("Hydrinos" are pure fiction and do not exist.)

"For over 20 years Mark Goldes has claimed his company MPI has been developing machines that generate energy for free. In over 20 years his company has not presented one shred of evidence that they can build such machines...

"For the past five years Mark Goldes has been promising generators 'next year.' He has never delivered. Like 'Alice in Wonderland' there will always be jam tomorrow, but never jam today."

- Penny Gruber, December 2008

- Gruber's comment was written almost five years ago - but it's just as true today - except that MPI, Goldes' corporation that he claimed would bring in one billion dollars in revenue from his horn-powered generator in 2012, is now defunct, having never produced any "Magnetic Power Modules" - just as his company called "Room Temperature Superconductors Inc" is also now defunct, having never produced any "room temperature superconductors." Evidently there's a limit to how many years in a row the same company can claim it will finally have something to demonstrate "next year." Now Goldes has a new scamporation, Chava Energy.

Goldes' current favorite scam is an engine that would run on ambient heat only - which is ruled out by the Second Law of Thermodynamics. But of course, the laws of physics always make an exception for the scams of Mark Goldes.

Mark Goldes is a textbook-ready example of a highly talented con artist who clearly takes pleasure in fooling people with his ludicrous claims, artfully peppered with pseudoscientific rubbish.

Make no mistake: Mark Goldes' scamtastic Aesop Institute is a ZERO-STAR nonprofit.

Let's look at just one example of Goldes' offerings in "revolutionary new technology:"

Most Ludicrous Scamvention: Mark Goldes' "POWERGENIE"

One of the most laughable of Mark Goldes' many invention scams is his "POWERGENIE" horn-powered generator. The brilliant idea of this revolutionary breakthrough is to blow a horn at a magnetized tuning rod, designed to resonate at the frequency of the horn, and then collect the electromotive energy produced by the vibrations of the rod.

We're not making this up.

POWERGENIE tuning rod engine explained - from the patent:

[The device incorporates] "an energy transfer and multiplier element being constructed of a ferromagnetic substance... having a natural resonance, due to a physical structure whose dimensions are directly proportional to the wavelength of the resonance frequency..."

"In this resonant condition, the rod material functions as a tuned waveguide, or longitudinal resonator, for acoustic energy."

"Ferrite rod 800 is driven to acoustic resonance at the second harmonic of its fundamental resonant frequency by acoustic horn 811, resulting in acoustic wave 816 within the rod having two nodal points... Bias magnet 801 produces magnetic flux 802 extending axially through both nodal points developed within rod 800... The sum electromotive force of coils 820 and 821 develops electrical current and power in resistive load 830."

- But the patent doesn't tell us who is going to volunteer to blow the horn at the rod all day. Perhaps it will come with an elephant.

Goldes claimed in 2008 that this wonderful triumph of human genius would bring his company, Magnetic Power Inc, one billion dollars in annual revenue by 2012. Magnetic Power Inc is now defunct, having never produced any "Magnetic Power Modules" - just as his company called "Room Temperature Superconductors Inc" is also now defunct, having never produced any "room temperature superconductors."


Mark Goldes' proofless claims regarding his Aesop Institute's make-believe strictly ambient heat engine do not represent any new technology, or even a new pretense - they merely represent a rather old pretense.

"Before the establishment of the Second Law, many people who were interested in inventing a perpetual motion machine had tried to circumvent the restrictions of First Law of Thermodynamics by extracting the massive internal energy of the environment as the power of the machine. Such a machine is called a "perpetual motion machine of the second kind". The second law declared the impossibility of such machines."

"A perpetual motion machine of the second kind is a machine which spontaneously converts thermal energy into mechanical work. When the thermal energy is equivalent to the work done, this does not violate the law of conservation of energy. However it does violate the more subtle second law of thermodynamics (see also entropy). The signature of a perpetual motion machine of the second kind is that there is only one heat reservoir involved, which is being spontaneously cooled without involving a transfer of heat to a cooler reservoir. This conversion of heat into useful work, without any side effect, is impossible, according to the second law of thermodynamics."

Goldes' make-believe strictly ambient heat engine would be a perpetual motion machine of the second kind, as defined above. Goldes is not developing any such engine; he is merely developing a pretense - as usual.

Goldes' strictly ambient heat engine would not merely "circumvent" the Second Law of Thermodynamics - it would actually DISPROVE the Second Law of Thermodynamics.

An engine that only uses ambient heat would need to be able to DECREASE the entropy of the universe. The Second Law tells us that we can never decrease the entropy of the universe, or of an isolated system.

As a consequence of this law:

"It is impossible for any device operating on a cycle to produce net work from a single temperature reservoir; the production of net work requires flow of heat from a hotter reservoir to a colder reservoir."

In the make-believe strictly ambient heat engine there are not two heat reservoirs at different temperatures; no reservoir would be available at any temperature other than the ambient temperature. No matter what cycle we design with this constraint, we will find that the cycle would have to be able to decrease the entropy of the universe in order to do any work.

The formulation of the Second Law of Thermodynamics as a constraint on entropy change is one of the most beautifully simple, and well-established, laws of physics.

The Second Law tells us that we can never build an engine that does some work with heat taken from a heat reservoir, without also transferring some heat to another reservoir at a lower temperature.

An equivalent statement is that we can't decrease the total entropy of an isolated system.

The entropy change differential due to heat transfer to or from a reservoir is inversely related to the temperature at which the transfer occurs. The consequence is that transferring heat INTO a cold reservoir produces a larger GAIN in entropy, than the LOSS of entropy that occurs due to transfer of the same amount of heat FROM a hot reservoir. This noteworthy and remarkable inequality enables a heat engine to use some heat to do some work without violating the Second Law - as long as it can make use of two different heat reservoirs, at different temperatures. The ambient-heat-powered engine only involves a single reservoir, at a single temperature (at any given moment). When it reduces the entropy of the reservoir by using some of the heat to do work, it has no way to compensate by increasing the entropy anywhere else. Therefore we know for certain that the engine will disappoint us. It will never be able to do any work.

In Mark Goldes' patent application for his "POWERGENIE" horn-powered tuning-rod engine, he described the tuning-rod as "an energy transfer and multiplier element."

But of course, for the tuning-rod to "multiply" energy, it would need to disprove the law of conservation of energy. (Obviously the Patent Office should never have allowed such a  description.)

Goldes' use of the term "energy multiplier element" reflects his pretense that the "revolutionary breakthrough" of the amazing "POWERGENIE" could disprove the law of conservation of energy, by presenting the world with a working "energy multiplier."

Goldes even claimed in 2008 that the POWERGENIE had been demonstrated already in an electric car, driven 4800 miles by his energy-multiplying horn-powered tuning-rod.

But it seems that most people, for some reason, had difficulty accepting the notion that the law of conservation of energy could be proven false.

And Goldes no doubt noticed that the Second Law of Thermodynamics - that "the entropy of an isolated system tends to increase with time and can never decrease" - is much less clear to most people than the conservation of energy.

So now, after leaving aside the pretense that he could somehow "multiply energy" with a magnetized tuning-rod, Goldes has chosen to focus, instead, on the pretense that he can disprove the Second Law with an engine powered by ambient heat.

There is no "new science" in any of Goldes' "revolutionary breakthroughs." There is only pseudoscience and pretense - and nothing new, at all.

@DavidNutzuki I agree. There hasn't been sufficient evidence to accuse global warming for typhoons. Maybe also scientist should share their methods because you'll need more than a hundred years of data to prove or disprove a claim. Lastly, Philippines really needs to invest in neighboring countries who've endured a typhoon that size, like Okinawa, with their concrete buildings. 


@GaryRMcCray @MarkGoldes

QUESTION DOGMA, question ideology, question outside authority. It is only by questioning what people take for granted, what people hold to be true, that we can break through the hypnosis of social conditioning. Deepak Chopra

Over the last 15 years the absolute status of the second law of thermodynamics has come under increased scrutiny. More than two dozen distinct challenges have appeared in the refereed scientific literature—more than the sum total over the previous 150 years—raising the possibility that the second law might soon be shown violable in laboratory experiments.NOTE: The Second Law has now been proven violable in experimental work en-route to publication. MG

This talk (surveyed) recently proposed challenges from a number of research groups around the world, focusing on those most amenable to laboratory test. Possible ramifications of second law violation (were) discussed, the most significant of which might be the recyclability of environmental heat into usable work. The thermal energy content of the atmosphere, ocean, and upper crust is estimated to be more than 10,000 times that of the world's fossil fuel reserves, making it a potentially inexhaustible reservoir of green energy.

“Challenges to the Second Law of Thermodynamics: Theory and Experiment” V. Capek and D.P. Sheehan; Fundamental Theories of Physics, Vol. 146 (Springer, Dordrecht, The Netherlands) 2005.
“Quantum Limits to the Second Law” D.P. Sheehan, Editor; AIP Conference Proceedings, Vol. 643 (AIP, Melville, NY) 2002.
Daniel P. Sheehan University of San Diego second law is in jeopardy.” D. Sheehan


@HenriJakes @ForTheMusic2  So should we be allowed to change that cycle, or rather try to maintain the cycle as it was. ?  Specially, since we are very weak at predicting how the cycle we change will progress...


@KeytoClearskiesAn engine running without fuel will speak louder than words in refuting these lies, distortions, half-truths, and errors. Once validated by independent labs it might even launch a perpetual commotion.

SurelookHomes @DavidNutzuki This was the biggest Typhoon ever to hit the world. What are talking about not being enough evidence, the entire scientific community agrees that human beings are causing global temperatures to rise, PERIOD. You listen to those hacks on TV give you the weather everyday...maybe you should wait a hundred years for that information too....

johan.cross2013 @DavidNutzuki 

had okinawa or philippines' neighboring countries experienced a category 5 typhoon with 300+kph winds? what just struck the philippines was the worst typhoon that ever hit the world, much worse than katrina where even the US's "concrete buildings" got inundated/destroyed. 


@GaryRMcCray @MarkGoldes As it happens you are mistaken on all counts.

I have known the inventor of this engine for a couple of decades. He has devoted years of lab work and study to The Second Law of Thermodynamics.  He holds an earlier Patent that demonstrates it can be circumvented, however that engine proved impractical. 

After the work of Jacob Wainwright came to his attention a few months ago, he concluded that it opened a practical design. That is the prototype in process. If, as he expects, it proves that atmospheric heat can replace fuel in engines with commercial potential, the work in my opinion, might deserve a Nobel Prize. Since the Nobel is more likely to go to an academic it would not surprise me if one is awarded to Daniel Sheehan.

The inventor believes that had Wainwright been taken seriously, engines which needed no fuel could have been produced 100 years ago. 

The human lives lost over oil in the interim may prove a sad commentary on the failure of scientists to perform experiments instead of condemning those who do so.


@MarkGoldes @GaryRMcCray 

I never doubted your ability to sell Snake Oil, I only completely doubt that you do not indeed know it is Snake Oil.

Scientists and current theories are often proven wrong or at least superseded by newer more encompassing theories Relativity for example, but the people who do that are not invested in promoting concepts they already knew were without merit.

You are. 

You are way too intelligent to be doing this ignorantly, therefore the only conclusion that can be drawn is that you are doing it on purpose.

Whether doing it for notoriety or for profit or in your case likely both, the intent is clearly to deceive, not to inform or to learn and that is just selfish and evil.

You are without merit.

I will not respond to you again as you do not have sufficient merit for me to consider responding to.